There’s a good old saying that goes, “If it isn’t broke, don’t fix it.” Well, I would like to create a new saying; “If it’s fixed, don’t break it.” I say this because it seems like lots of teams this offseason have done things that are going to severely jeopardize their chances of contending next year. Whether it be via free-agency, trade, unafforadbility, etc., there are situations where a team doesn’t and/or can’t hold on to certain players. Even though there are huge free-agent signings that we all pay attention to, we don’t seem to focus as much on the loss of players. This seems ironic to me, because I personally believe those subtractions are just as pivotal – if not more so – as the big name signings.

One of the biggest examples of this is the AL East Tampa Bay Rays, who last year made it to the playoffs and will weakly try to do it again. This is going to be tough when you consider the fact that Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, Jason Bartlett, Joaquin Benoit, Rafael Soriano, and, as of a few hours ago, Matt Graza (who, if you haven’t heard, was traded to the Cubs) will not be returning to the team. If I’m a Rays fan, I’ve lost all hope. These are guys that were very critical pieces of the team last year, who each contributed a huge part to making it to the playoffs. This now means that team will largely rest on the shoulders of Longoria and Price, which will be tough. I say the Sox and Yanks will battle it out in August and September.

Speaking of Boston, I said in a previous blog that I didn’t think much would change in Boston, and that the additions of A-Gon and Crawford wouldn’t be enough to turn the team around. I’ve given it a lot of thought, and maybe I was too quick to say that. That isn’t to say that I now think that Boston is the next World Champion, but they might contend. You have to consider the fact that, as I just mentioned, the Rays are severely depleted. And not only have the Rays lost Crawford, but they lost him to a division rival. Now, if the Rays are depleted enough that the go behind the Yankees and Red Sox in the AL East, that would mean that it would be Yanks/RedSox in first and second, and the Rays in third or lower, obviously. So that would mean that, if the Red Sox fix tweak their bullpen a bit, they have a legitimate chance at the East title or at least the Wild Card. That is to say, if their isn’t a sudden arrival from the Orioles or Blue Jays, which I think is unlikely.

Let’s talk about my NL West. The NL West is probably going to be a lot different this year than last year. The Rockies have added Ty Wiggington and can boast Jorge De La Rosa, Ubaldo Jimenez, Troy Tulowitzki, and Carlos Gonzalez, which will put them in a good position to win the division. The Giants will finish second, I believe. Even though they are reigning world champions, I think they are too young and too surprised at themselves for winning last season that they will not know how to repeat it in 2011. The Padres are going to be a tough one to swallow. It may sound all pretty and nice that they’ve added Brad Hawpe, Jason Bartlett, and Orlando Hudson, but you have to consider the fact that they have lost Jon Garland, Ryan Webb, Edward Mujica, and Adrian Gonzalez, and there are rumors of a trade of Heath Bell. This is starting to get dangerous and the Padres could very easily finish fourth. The Diamondbacks, who have been a mess since late 2008, have been plagued with a bad bullpen over the past two years, and Kevin Towers has come in to try and fix it. However, I have concerns with the bullpen because, even though J.J. Putz is a fun name to throw in to the mix, that’s about it. David Hernandez and Kam Mickolio are the only other relievers to be added this offseason and I’m not quite sure that is enough to win the west. Other than that, I like the look of the team, but that bullpen is gonna need a bit more than what they’ve got if they want to turn it around from last year. I bet they place third. That leaves the Dodgers, who, honestly don’t look much different than last year, but they do have to adjust to a new manager because of the departure of Torre. With that in mind, I have to say its going to be a tough year for the Dodgers.

My Projected 2011 NL West Final Standings:
1. Colorado Rockies
2. San Francisco Giants
3. Arizona Diamondbacks
4. San Diego Padres
5. Los Angeles Dodgers

And that’s today’s post! Check back soon for the next one.